Answered

Of the air conditioner repair shops listed in a particular phone book, 87% are competent. A competent repair shop can repair an air conditioner 85% of the time; an incompetent shop can repair an air conditioner 60% of the time. Suppose the air conditioner was repaired correctly.
A. Find the probability that it was repaired by a competent shop, given that it was repaired correctly.

Answer :

Answer:

There is a 90.46% probability that it was repaired by a competent shop, given that it was repaired correctly.

Step-by-step explanation:

We have these following probabilities:

An 87% probability that an air conditioner repair shop is competent.

A 13% probability that an air conditioner repair shop is incompetent.

An 85% probability that an compotent shop can repair the air.

A 60% probability than an incompetent shop can repair the air.

This can be formulated as the following problem:

What is the probability of B happening, knowing that A has happened?

It can be calculated by the following formula

[tex]P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)}[/tex]

Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this problem we have that:

Probability that it was repaired by a competent shop, given that it was repaired correctly.

P(B) is the probability that it was repaired by a competent shop. 87% of the shops are competent, so [tex]P(B) = 0.87[/tex]

P(A/B) is the probability that it was repaired correctly, given that it was repaired by a competent shop. There is an 85% probability that an compotent shop can repair the air. So [tex]P(A/B) = 0.85[/tex]

P(A) is the probability that an air was repaired correctly.

This is 85% of 87% and 60% of 13%. So

[tex]P(A) = 0.85*0.87 + 0.60*0.13 = 0.8175[/tex]

Finally

[tex]P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.87*0.85}{0.8175} = 0.9046[/tex]

There is a 90.46% probability that it was repaired by a competent shop, given that it was repaired correctly.