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Cars arriving for gasoline at a Shell station follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1010 per hour. (Enter all answers rounded to at least 3 decimal places.) (a) Determine the probability that over the next hour, only one car will arrive. (b) Compute the probability that in the next 3 hours, more than 29 cars will arrive.

Answer :

Answer:

a) [tex] P(X=1) = \frac{e^{-10} 10^1}{1!}= 0.000454[/tex]

b) For this case the new parameter [tex]\lambda[/tex] would be:

[tex] \lambda = 10 \frac{cars}{hour} * 3 hours =30[/tex]

And we want to calculate the following probability:

[tex] P(X >29)[/tex]

And we can use the complement rule for this case:

[tex] P(X >29) =1-P(X\leq 29)[/tex]

And for this case we can use the following excel code in order to find the required probability:

"=1-POISSON.DIST(29,30,TRUE)"

And we got: [tex] P(X >29) =1-P(X\leq 29)=0.5243[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

Part a

Let X the random variable that represent the number of cars arriving for gasoline at Shell station. We know that [tex]X \sim Poisson(\lambda= 10)[/tex]

The probability mass function for the random variable is given by:

[tex]f(x)=\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^x}{x!} , x=0,1,2,3,4,...[/tex]

And for this case we want this probability:

[tex] P(X=1)[/tex]

Using the probability mass function we got:

[tex] P(X=1) = \frac{e^{-10} 10^1}{1!}= 0.000454[/tex]

Part b

For this case the new parameter [tex]\lambda[/tex] would be:

[tex] \lambda = 10 \frac{cars}{hour} * 3 hours =30[/tex]

And we want to calculate the following probability:

[tex] P(X >29)[/tex]

And we can use the complement rule for this case:

[tex] P(X >29) =1-P(X\leq 29)[/tex]

And for this case we can use the following excel code in order to find the required probability:

"=1-POISSON.DIST(29,30,TRUE)"

And we got: [tex] P(X >29) =1-P(X\leq 29)=0.5243[/tex]

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